Are better days ahead? And When?
Of course, when you’re in the middle of a downturn, it feels like it’s never going to end. But it’s important to remember that market recoveries have been longer and stronger than downturns. Over the past 70 years the average bear market has lasted 14 months and resulted in an average loss of 33%. By contrast, as measured by Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Index, the average bull market has run for 72 months — or more than five times longer — and the average gain has been 279%. Read more… – Claudia Huntington, Equity Portfolio Manager, Capital Group
One of the most frequent questions asked by investors concerns the shape of the recession and recovery – is it V-shaped, U-shaped or L-shaped. We believe it actually is none of these but rather consists of a plunge, a bounce, a crawl and a surge. To be more precise, following a collapse in the first half of 2020, we expect a surge in activity in the third quarter, followed by much slower growth until the widespread distribution of a vaccine triggers a surge in economic growth, hopefully in the second half of 2021. Read more… – Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist, JP Morgan
Thursday’s (7/30) initial report on real GDP growth in the second quarter is going to break records, and not in a good way. Right now, it looks like the US economy shrank at a 35% annual rate in Q2. …The key to remember is that we have already seen the worst of the crisis. The US economy will take years to get back to where it was before COVID-19, but a recovery has already started. Businesses and entrepreneurs have adapted and made the best of an awful situation, including massive government overreach. Better days are headed our way. Read more… – Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist, First Trust
As always, we continue to believe that one’s circumstances and risk profile should determine the appropriate mix of investments, and not media headlines. Please contact us if you ever have any questions or concerns about your accounts or any news you hear.
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment, asset class, or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by the adviser), will be profitable or equal to past performance levels. Information in this commentary is gleaned from third party sources, and while believed to be reliable, is not independently verified.